Bill Murray
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop LAR Settled: Hit
Matthew Stafford Over 17.5 Pass Completions vs. Bills
The bet: Over 17.5 pass completions
You checked 17.5, an alternate line. Most books: 23.5.
BUF@LAR Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 17.5 pass completions won.
Final: 40.
Hit rate vs the line
3of4
(75%)
Sep 10 – Oct 4
- 15
- 22
- 30
- 32
Pass Completions per game, oldest to newest
L4 average
24.8vs 17.5 line
Based on 4 games
Game results
Matthew Stafford pass completions over the last 4 games versus a line of 17.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 17.5
Game log · L4, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Pass Completions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | @PHI | Hit | 32 |
| Sep 27 | @DEN | Hit | 30 |
| Sep 21 | vsNYG | Hit | 22 |
| Sep 10 | vsSF(neutral) | Miss | 15 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Buffalo Bills
2026 season · 6 games
5–1
Record
32.8
Points / game
28.5
Allowed / game
Los Angeles Rams
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
3–4
Record
24.3
Points / game
22.7
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Over 17.5 pass completions
Closing price
Odds format
Open
−1260
Current
−1760
Change
−500
Best available moved from −1260 to −1760. That pays $2.26 less on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Latest sourced reports
- Aaron Donald thinks he'll play for Rams vs Bills after a short injury setback in his comeback (opens in a new tab)
Aaron Donald thinks he'll play for Rams vs Bills after a short injury setback in his comeback
plans to play for the Rams against the Buffalo Bills
abcnews.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Los Angeles Rams
CJ Daniels
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Buffalo Bills
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
DJ Moore
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Matthew Stafford Over 17.5 pass completions at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Matthew Stafford Over 17.5 pass completions?
Matthew Stafford hit over 17.5 pass completions in 3 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (75% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Matthew Stafford Over 17.5 pass completions?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.