Aidan O'Connell
Reported context: Quarterback availability affects the offense; replacement performance is not assumed.
NFL player prop BUF Settled: Miss
Passing TDs
Under 1.5 passing tds
3 of 5 decided (60%) · last 5 games
Price as of Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET +120 at BetMGM
Verified facts
Josh Allen hit under 1.5 passing tds in 3 of his last 5 tracked games (60%).
Showing saved research.
Final: 2.
Closing price not available. Pregame evidence: hit 3 of 3 (100%) in the last 3.
| Date | Opponent | Line | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | Las Vegas Raiders | 1.5 | +116 | miss |
| Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET | Los Angeles Rams | 1.5 | −115 | hit |
| Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET | New England Patriots | 1.5 | +125 | hit |
3of5
(60%)
Sep 13 – Oct 12
Passing TDs per game, oldest to newest
1.4vs 1.5 line
Based on 5 games
Josh Allen passing tds over the last 5 games versus a line of 1.5.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | @LA | Hit | 1 |
| Oct 4 | vsNE | Hit | 1 |
| Sep 27 | vsLAC | Hit | 0 |
| Sep 17 | vsDET | Miss | 3 |
| Sep 13 | @HOU | Miss | 2 |
Closing price: BetMGM +120 · 18¢ better than BetRivers
Prices as of Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
Over −140
Game context
Josh Allen: 1.5 passing touchdowns average (6 tracked games).
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
2026 season · 6 games
5–1
Record
32.8
Points / game
28.5
Allowed / game
2026 season · 6 games
3–3
Record
27
Points / game
27
Allowed / game
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Open
−104
Current
+120
Change
+24
Best available moved from −104 to +120. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Under.
Pregame research captured
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen addressed whispers about his health after a less-than-stellar rushing game in Week 4.
larrybrownsports.com · · Availability report
signing 25-year-old Jamari Thrash to the practice squad ahead of their Week 6
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Aidan O'Connell
Reported context: Quarterback availability affects the offense; replacement performance is not assumed.
Bryce Cabeldue
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
DJ Moore
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Josh Allen hit under 1.5 passing tds in 3 of his last 5 tracked games (60%).
Josh Allen hit under 1.5 passing tds in 3 of 5 games across the last 5 games (60% hit rate).
+120 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Josh Allen Under 1.5 passing tds right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:25 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.