Demond Claiborne
out
Reported context: Backfield depth is affected; replacement touches are not confirmed.
NFL player prop MIN Pending
Upcoming check
Aaron Jones Over 4.5 Receptions
The bet: Over 4.5 receptions
You checked 4.5, an alternate line. Most books: 1.5.
BUF@MIN Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET
Cleared 4.5 in 1 of his last 7
Last 7 gamesSep 13 to Nov 1L7 average 2.1
Oldest to newest
Past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved research.
Past games
| Date | Opponent | Line | Actual | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET | New Orleans Saints | Over 4.5 receptions | 3 receptions | +317 | miss |
Hit rate vs the line
1of7
(14%)
Sep 13 – Nov 1
- 0
- 0
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 1
- 2
Receptions per game, oldest to newest
L7 average
2.1vs 4.5 line
Based on 7 games
Game results
Aaron Jones receptions over the last 7 games versus a line of 4.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 4.5
Game log · L7, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | @DET | Miss | 2 |
| Oct 25 | vsIND | Miss | 1 |
| Oct 11 | @NO | Miss | 3 |
| Oct 4 | vsMIA | Miss | 4 |
| Sep 27 | @TB | Hit | 5 |
| Sep 20 | @CHI | Miss | 0 |
| Sep 13 | vsGB | Miss | 0 |
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
Aaron Jones
- Receptions per game
- 2.1
Season · 7 games
Aaron Jones
JONES · TEAM TARGET SHARE
11.6%of team targets
2026 regular season7 games
JONES · TARGETS PER GAME
3targets/game
2026 regular season7 games
Buffalo Bills
BUF allows
6.0rec allowed/game to RBs
2nd most (L4: T-7th most)7 games
Market movement
Price history
Over 4.5 receptions
Best price
Odds format
Open
+1000
Current
+1440
Change
+440
Best available moved from +1000 to +1440. That pays $440.00 more on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
The latest saved updates may be out of date.
Research refreshed
Latest sourced reports
- Vikings could 'address the quarterback position' via a trade after Kyler Murray injury (opens in a new tab)
Vikings could 'address the quarterback position' via a trade after Kyler Murray injury Recent stories suggested that the Minnesota Vikings could at least consider making a move to land Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
- Vikings Starting Carson Wentz At QB vs. Bills Amid Kyler Murray Injury (opens in a new tab)
Vikings Starting Carson Wentz At QB vs. Bills Amid Kyler Murray Injury
foxsports.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Minnesota Vikings
Jauan Jennings
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Buffalo Bills
Jordan Hancock
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Joshua Palmer
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Related checks
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Frequently asked
What does the data say about Aaron Jones Over 4.5 receptions at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Aaron Jones Over 4.5 receptions?
Aaron Jones hit over 4.5 receptions in 1 of 7 games across the last 7 games (14% hit rate).
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.