Bill Murray
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop LAR Settled: Hit
Kyren Williams Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Bills
The bet: Over 4.5 receptions
You checked 4.5, an alternate line. Most books: 2.5.
BUF@LAR Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 4.5 receptions won.
Final: 6.
Hit rate vs the line
2of4
(50%)
Sep 10 – Oct 4
- 3
- 2
- 6
- 10
Receptions per game, oldest to newest
L4 average
5.3vs 4.5 line
Based on 4 games
Game results
Kyren Williams receptions over the last 4 games versus a line of 4.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 4.5
Game log · L4, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | @PHI | Hit | 10 |
| Sep 27 | @DEN | Hit | 6 |
| Sep 21 | vsNYG | Miss | 2 |
| Sep 10 | vsSF(neutral) | Miss | 3 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Buffalo Bills
2026 season · 6 games
5–1
Record
32.8
Points / game
28.5
Allowed / game
Los Angeles Rams
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
3–4
Record
24.3
Points / game
22.7
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Over 4.5 receptions
Closing price
Odds format
Open
+290
Current
+319
Change
+29
Best available moved from +290 to +319. That pays $29.00 more on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Latest sourced reports
- Aaron Donald thinks he'll play for Rams vs Bills after a short injury setback in his comeback (opens in a new tab)
Aaron Donald thinks he'll play for Rams vs Bills after a short injury setback in his comeback
plans to play for the Rams against the Buffalo Bills
abcnews.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Los Angeles Rams
CJ Daniels
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Buffalo Bills
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
DJ Moore
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Kyren Williams Over 4.5 receptions at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Kyren Williams Over 4.5 receptions?
Kyren Williams hit over 4.5 receptions in 2 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (50% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Kyren Williams Over 4.5 receptions?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.