Adam Randall
out
Reported context: Backfield depth is affected; replacement touches are not confirmed.
NFL player prop BAL Pending
Today's check
Derrick Henry Over 16.5 Carries
The bet: Over 16.5 carries
You checked 16.5, an alternate line. Most books: 17.5.
JAX@BAL Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
Cleared 16.5 in 5 of his last 7
Last 7 gamesSep 20 to Nov 1L7 average 19.1
Oldest to newest
Past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved research.
Hit rate vs the line
5of7
(71%)
Sep 20 – Nov 1
- 16
- 26
- 23
- 24
- 17
- 17
- 11
Carries per game, oldest to newest
L7 average
19.1vs 16.5 line
Based on 7 games
Game results
Derrick Henry carries over the last 7 games versus a line of 16.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 16.5
Game log · L7, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | @BUF | Miss | 11 |
| Oct 25 | vsCIN | Hit | 17 |
| Oct 18 | @CLE | Hit | 17 |
| Oct 11 | @ATL | Hit | 24 |
| Oct 4 | vsTEN | Hit | 23 |
| Sep 27 | vsDAL(neutral) | Hit | 26 |
| Sep 20 | vsNO | Miss | 16 |
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
Derrick Henry
- Carries per game
- 19.8
Season · 8 games
Derrick Henry
HENRY · TEAM CARRY SHARE
68.4%
2026 regular season8 games
Jacksonville Jaguars
JAX allows
17.6carries allowed/game to RBs
2nd fewest (L4: 3rd fewest)7 games
Game
Rest
4days rest, both teams
BAL 4, JAX 4
Market movement
Price history
Over 16.5 carries
Best price
Odds format
Open
−150
Current
−150
Change
0
Best available moved from −150 to −150. The best available price is basically unchanged. That doesn't make the case for or against Over.
News and availability
Availability and reports
The latest saved updates may be out of date.
Research refreshed
Matchup reports
No game report passed the current research checks. Injury statuses below are separate reports, not a news summary.
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Baltimore Ravens
Jaylinn Hawkins
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DaVon Hamilton
out
Reported context: Front-seven depth is affected; pressure and run-defense effects are not quantified.
Eric Murray
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Derrick Henry Over 16.5 carries at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Derrick Henry Over 16.5 carries?
Derrick Henry hit over 16.5 carries in 5 of 7 games across the last 7 games (71% hit rate).
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.