Dont'e Thornton Jr.
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
NFL player prop KC Settled: Hit
Kenneth Walker III Over 16.5 Carries vs. Raiders
The bet: Over 16.5 carries
You checked 16.5, an alternate line. Most books: 18.5.
KC@LV Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 16.5 carries won.
Final: 22.
Hit rate vs the line
3of3
(100%)
Sep 14 – Sep 27
- 23
- 24
- 18
Carries per game, oldest to newest
L3 average
21.7vs 16.5 line
Based on 3 games
Game results
Kenneth Walker III carries over the last 3 games versus a line of 16.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 16.5
Game log · L3, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | @MIA | Hit | 18 |
| Sep 20 | vsIND | Hit | 24 |
| Sep 14 | vsDEN | Hit | 23 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Kansas City Chiefs
Your selection
2026 season · 6 games
5–1
Record
23.8
Points / game
17.2
Allowed / game
Las Vegas Raiders
2026 season · 7 games
3–4
Record
26.1
Points / game
28.1
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Over 16.5 carries
Closing price
Odds format
Open
−200
Current
−180
Change
+20
Best available moved from −200 to −180. That pays $5.56 more on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Game conditions
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Las Vegas, NV · Grass
- Forecast
- 92°F0% precipitationGusts 5 mph
Game-day inactives
Las Vegas Raiders
Jackson Powers-Johnson
G · Groin ·
Aidan O'Connell
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Jonah Laulu
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Darrell Luter Jr.
CB · Coach's Decision ·
Tristin McCollum
S · Coach's Decision ·
Kansas City Chiefs
Jared Wiley
TE · Coach's Decision ·
Garrett Nussmeier
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Diego Pounds
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Jack Pyburn
LB · Coach's Decision ·
Josh Simmons
OT · Back ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN game outlookNamed sportsbook line and dated ESPN model
DraftKings game line
ESPN snapshot
- Spread
- KC -4.5
- Game total
- 47.5
- Las Vegas Raiders
- +185
- Kansas City Chiefs
- −225
ESPN matchup predictor
Model snapshot
- Las Vegas Raiders
- 30%
- Kansas City Chiefs
- 70%
Kansas City Chiefs by 5.4
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Latest sourced reports
- Kansas City Chiefs’ lone practice squad elevation for Week 4 vs. Las Vegas Raiders pushes player to his limit for the 2026 NFL season (opens in a new tab)
The Kansas City Chiefs have elevated LB Cole Christiansen for Week 4 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
- Kansas City Chiefs’ final injury report confirms veteran defender will make his 2026 debut in Week 4 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (opens in a new tab)
Kansas City Chiefs’ final injury report confirms veteran defender will make his 2026 debut in Week 4 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Las Vegas Raiders
Jack Bech
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Kansas City Chiefs
Jadon Canady
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Kenneth Walker III Over 16.5 carries at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Kenneth Walker III Over 16.5 carries?
Kenneth Walker III hit over 16.5 carries in 3 of 3 games across the last 3 games (100% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Kenneth Walker III Over 16.5 carries?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:25 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.