The NFL season kicks off with a slate of heavyweight matchups, and we’re breaking down three of the biggest: Chiefs vs. Chargers, Jets vs. Steelers, and Bills vs. Ravens. Each game has its own storyline, from star QBs in the spotlight to defenses trying to set the tone early. Here’s a look at the matchups and props worth targeting.
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1. Chiefs vs. Chargers (Friday in São Paulo)
Matchup analysis
Offense
Patrick Mahomes owns Week 1. He’s piled up 2,059 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions across seven season openers. He rarely starts slow, and the Chiefs’ offense should be in rhythm from the jump. Justin Herbert remains the engine of the Chargers’ offense. He threw for 3,870 yards last season (227.6 per game) with 23 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions, and he added another 306 yards on the ground. Herbert’s ability to extend plays and push the ball downfield makes LA tough to plan against.
Defense
The Chargers defense quietly put together one of the better pass defenses in the league last year, finishing 7th in passing yards allowed (206.9 per game) and 2nd in yards per attempt (6.2). Kansas City’s defense, meanwhile, was more middle-of-the-pack, giving up 3,720 passing yards (18th) and 24 passing touchdowns (12th). The Chargers were far more vulnerable against the run, allowing 120.3 rushing yards per game, which sets up Isiah Pacheco as an important factor for the Chiefs. On paper this is close, but it’s hard to bet against Mahomes in an opener.
Betting props
- Chiefs -3 spread: Mahomes’ track record in Week 1 is too strong to fade, and the Chargers’ offensive line questions give Kansas City the edge.
- Justin Herbert Over 224.5 Passing Yards: With his volume and efficiency, Herbert should clear this number against a defense that gives up plenty through the air.
- Isiah Pacheco Over 49.5 Rushing Yards: The Chargers’ run defense has been shaky, and Pacheco’s return should allow Kansas City to exploit that weakness.
2. Bills vs. Ravens (Sunday Night Football)
Matchup analysis
Offense
This one’s a heavyweight fight between two of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is coming off an MVP-level campaign — 67% completion rate, over 4,100 passing yards, 41 touchdowns against just 4 picks, plus nearly 1,000 rushing yards. His dual-threat ability makes Baltimore dangerous every snap. Josh Allen remains Buffalo’s engine, throwing for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns last season while adding 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing scores. Allen’s red-zone rushing is as valuable as any running back in the league.
The Ravens will lean on Zay Flowers, who broke 1,000 receiving yards in his sophomore season, and Derrick Henry, who rushed for nearly 2,000 yards with 16 TDs. The Bills have a thinner receiving corps — Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman (questionable) — but James Cook is a real factor on the ground with 16 TDs in roughly half of Henry’s yardage, making him a serious red-zone threat.
Defense
Baltimore’s secondary was already one of the stingiest in 2024, and the additions of Jaire Alexander along with an extension for Marlon Humphrey give them one of the league’s best cornerback duos. That coverage discipline matters against Josh Allen’s deep-ball aggression. On the other side, Buffalo’s defense bent plenty last season but held strong in the red zone, finishing 6th in opponent touchdown rate. The real swing factor could be whether the Bills’ front seven can keep Lamar Jackson from breaking containment, a challenge few defenses have consistently solved.
Betting props
- Over 48.5 Total Points: Both offenses bring explosive upside, and Sunday night spotlights usually lean toward higher scoring.
- Lamar Jackson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards: His legs are a built-in game plan, and Buffalo has historically struggled against mobile QBs.
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: Buffalo leans on Allen in the red zone, and he’s hit this mark in 10 of his last 14 primetime games.
3. Jets @ Steelers (Sunday afternoon)
Matchup analysis
Offense
The headline writes itself: Aaron Rodgers makes his Steelers debut against his former team. Rodgers is five touchdowns from passing Brett Favre on the all-time list, and he steps into a Pittsburgh offense that finally has real weapons — DK Metcalf stretching the field and Jaylen Warren working as both a runner and checkdown target. Expect Pittsburgh to test the Jets deep early. On the other side, Justin Fields gets the keys in New York. His passing has been inconsistent, but he added over 1,000 rushing yards in each of his last two healthy seasons and can stress defenses with his legs. Fields has a WR room led by Garrett Wilson along with Allen Lazard and Josh Reynolds, giving him more weapons than in Chicago.
Defense
The Jets’ defense remains built around Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, but they struggled at times against the run last year, giving up over 115 rushing yards per game. That could open lanes for Jaylen Warren, especially with Rodgers willing to lean on the ground game early. Pittsburgh’s defense is still led by T.J. Watt, but the bigger story is how much Rodgers’ presence can elevate a Steelers unit that averaged just 18.8 points per game in 2024.
Betting props
- Game Total Over 36.5: Rodgers’ revenge game plus new weapons, paired with Fields and his new offense, make the over a solid play.
- Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: The Jets’ run defense has gaps, and Rodgers’ revenge factor sets him up for multiple scores.
- Garrett Wilson Over 55.5 Receiving Yards: Fields will pepper him with targets as the Jets try to keep pace through the air.
