Ar'maj Reed-Adams
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop BUF Settled: Miss
Josh Allen Over 4.5 Passing TDs vs. Patriots
The bet: Over 4.5 passing tds
You checked 4.5, an alternate line. Most books: 1.5.
NE@BUF Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 4.5 passing tds lost.
Final: 1.
Hit rate vs the line
0of3
(0%)
Sep 13 – Sep 27
- 2
- 3
- 0
Passing TDs per game, oldest to newest
L3 average
1.7vs 4.5 line
Based on 3 games
Game results
Josh Allen passing tds over the last 3 games versus a line of 4.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 4.5
Game log · L3, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | vsLAC | Miss | 0 |
| Sep 17 | vsDET | Miss | 3 |
| Sep 13 | @HOU | Miss | 2 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
New England Patriots
2026 season · 7 games
4–3
Record
22.9
Points / game
20.4
Allowed / game
Buffalo Bills
Your selection
2026 season · 6 games
5–1
Record
32.8
Points / game
28.5
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Over 4.5 passing tds
Closing price
Odds format
Open
+2400
Current
+2600
Change
+200
Best available moved from +2400 to +2600. That pays $200.00 more on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Latest sourced reports
- Drake Maye gets major ‘limitations’ injury update ahead of Patriots vs Bills clash (opens in a new tab)
Drake Maye has been cleared to play for the New England Patriots against the Buffalo Bills despite being listed on the injury report with a right shoulder issue...
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
- Patriots' Drake Maye responds to report about rift with Mike Vrabel, makes firm shoulder injury statement (opens in a new tab)
Patriots' Drake Maye responds to report about rift with Mike Vrabel, makes firm shoulder injury statement
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Buffalo Bills
Christian Benford
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
New England Patriots
A.J. Brown
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Behren Morton
out
Reported context: Quarterback availability affects the offense; replacement performance is not assumed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Josh Allen Over 4.5 passing tds at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Josh Allen Over 4.5 passing tds?
Josh Allen hit over 4.5 passing tds in 0 of 3 games across the last 3 games (0% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Josh Allen Over 4.5 passing tds?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 1:00 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.