Joe Alt
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop DEN Settled: Miss
Bo Nix Over 4.5 Carries vs. Chargers
The bet: Over 4.5 carries
DEN@LAC Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 4.5 carries lost.
Final: 4.
Hit rate vs the line
1of4
(25%)
Sep 14 – Oct 4
- 3
- 5
- 4
- 2
Carries per game, oldest to newest
L4 average
3.5vs 4.5 line
Based on 4 games
Game results
Bo Nix carries over the last 4 games versus a line of 4.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 4.5
Game log · L4, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | @SF | Miss | 2 |
| Sep 27 | vsLA | Miss | 4 |
| Sep 20 | vsJAX | Hit | 5 |
| Sep 14 | @KC | Miss | 3 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Denver Broncos
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
5–2
Record
20.6
Points / game
20.1
Allowed / game
Los Angeles Chargers
2026 season · 6 games
0–6
Record
15
Points / game
25.2
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Over 4.5 carries
Closing price
Odds format
Open
+104
Current
+115
Change
+11
Best available moved from +104 to +115. That pays $11.00 more on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Game conditions
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Inglewood, CA · Artificial surface
- Forecast
- 70°F60% precipitationGusts 20 mph
Game-day inactives
Los Angeles Chargers
Rodney Shelley
CB · Hamstring ·
Brenen Thompson
WR · Quadriceps ·
Quentin Johnston
WR · Chest ·
Donte Jackson
CB · Hamstring ·
Derwin James Jr.
S · Hamstring ·
Denver Broncos
Sam Ehlinger
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Pat Surtain II
CB · Ankle ·
Riley Moss
CB · Ribs ·
Tyler Onyedim
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Jordan Jackson
DT · Coach's Decision ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN game outlookNamed sportsbook line and dated ESPN model
DraftKings game line
ESPN snapshot
- Spread
- DEN -3.5
- Game total
- 42.5
- Los Angeles Chargers
- +160
- Denver Broncos
- −192
ESPN matchup predictor
Model snapshot
- Los Angeles Chargers
- 49%
- Denver Broncos
- 50%
Denver Broncos by 0.1
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Latest sourced reports
- Success of Broncos' play-calling shake-up hinges on QB Bo Nix letting it fly (opens in a new tab)
Success of Broncos' play-calling shake-up hinges on QB Bo Nix letting it fly
The Denver Broncos are making a needed play-calling change, but it won't work until starting quarterback Bo Nix begins ripping it.
yardbarker.com · · Matchup report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Los Angeles Chargers
Kayode Awosika
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
Denver Broncos
Dallen Bentley
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Kage Casey
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Bo Nix Over 4.5 carries at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Bo Nix Over 4.5 carries?
Bo Nix hit over 4.5 carries in 1 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (25% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Bo Nix Over 4.5 carries?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:05 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.