DJ Campbell
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop CIN Settled: Hit
Chase Brown Under 16.5 Carries vs. Dolphins
The bet: Under 16.5 carries
CIN@MIA Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Stayed under 16.5 in 3 of his last 4
Last 4 gamesSep 13 to Oct 4L4 average 14.5
Oldest to newest
Past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved research.
Settled: Under 16.5 carries won.
Final: 13.
Hit rate vs the line
3of4
(75%)
Sep 13 – Oct 4
- 16
- 20
- 13
- 9
Carries per game, oldest to newest
L4 average
14.5vs 16.5 line
Based on 4 games
Game results
Chase Brown carries over the last 4 games versus a line of 16.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 16.5
Game log · L4, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | vsJAX | Hit | 9 |
| Sep 27 | @PIT | Hit | 13 |
| Sep 20 | @HOU | Miss | 20 |
| Sep 13 | vsTB | Hit | 16 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Cincinnati Bengals
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
5–2
Record
29.4
Points / game
22.6
Allowed / game
Miami Dolphins
2026 season · 7 games
1–6
Record
16.7
Points / game
25.9
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Under 16.5 carries
Closing price
Odds format
Open
−106
Current
−132
Change
−26
Best available moved from −106 to −132. That pays $18.58 less on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Game conditions
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Miami Gardens, FL · Grass
- Forecast
- 91°F25% precipitationGusts 14 mph
Game-day inactives
Miami Dolphins
Reese Taylor
CB · Quadriceps ·
Justin Joly
TE · Concussion ·
Caleb Douglas
WR · Ankle ·
Chukwuebuka Godrick
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Kaytron Allen
RB · Coach's Decision ·
Cincinnati Bengals
Colbie Young
WR · Knee ·
Landon Robinson
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Connor Lew
C · Coach's Decision ·
Kyle Dugger
S · Quadriceps ·
Jack Endries
TE · Coach's Decision ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN game outlookNamed sportsbook line and dated ESPN model
DraftKings game line
ESPN snapshot
- Spread
- CIN -7
- Game total
- 44.5
- Miami Dolphins
- +280
- Cincinnati Bengals
- −355
ESPN matchup predictor
Model snapshot
- Miami Dolphins
- 19%
- Cincinnati Bengals
- 81%
Cincinnati Bengals by 9.2
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Reports to read
Source headlines only. Open the report to check the details; these articles have not been summarized in this Check.
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Miami Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals
Myles Hinton
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Chase Brown Under 16.5 carries at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Chase Brown Under 16.5 carries?
Chase Brown hit under 16.5 carries in 3 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (75% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Chase Brown Under 16.5 carries?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 1:00 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.