Jon Gaines II
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop DEN Settled: Miss
Bo Nix Under 11.5 Rushing Yards vs. Cardinals
The bet: Under 11.5 rushing yards
You checked 11.5, an alternate line. Most books: 10.5.
DEN@ARI Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET
Showing saved research.
Settled: Under 11.5 rushing yards lost.
Final: 73.
Hit rate vs the line
6of6
(100%)
Sep 14 – Oct 15
- 2
- 6
- 7
- 10
- 10
- 2
Rushing Yards per game, oldest to newest
L6 average
6.2vs 11.5 line
Based on 6 games
Game results
Bo Nix rushing yards over the last 6 games versus a line of 11.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 11.5
Game log · L6, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Rushing Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | vsSEA | Hit | 2 |
| Oct 11 | @LAC | Hit | 10 |
| Oct 4 | @SF | Hit | 10 |
| Sep 27 | vsLA | Hit | 7 |
| Sep 20 | vsJAX | Hit | 6 |
| Sep 14 | @KC | Hit | 2 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Denver Broncos
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
5–2
Record
20.6
Points / game
20.1
Allowed / game
Arizona Cardinals
2026 season · 7 games
2–5
Record
20.3
Points / game
29.7
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Under 11.5 rushing yards
Closing price
Odds format
Open
−114
Current
−114
Change
0
Best available moved from −114 to −114. The best available price is basically unchanged. That doesn't make the case for or against Under.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Game conditions
- Venue
- State Farm Stadium
- Glendale, AZ · Grass
- Forecast
- 78°F0% precipitationGusts 6 mph
Game-day inactives
Arizona Cardinals
Max Melton
CB · Knee ·
Carson Beck
QB · Back ·
Andrew Wingard
S · Knee ·
Albert Reese IV
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Jeremiyah Love
RB · Ankle ·
Denver Broncos
Sam Ehlinger
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Pat Surtain II
CB · Ankle ·
Tyler Onyedim
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Talanoa Hufanga
S · Ankle ·
Jordan Jackson
DT · Coach's Decision ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN game outlookNamed sportsbook line and dated ESPN model
DraftKings game line
ESPN snapshot
- Spread
- DEN -4.5
- Game total
- 43.5
- Arizona Cardinals
- +195
- Denver Broncos
- −238
ESPN matchup predictor
Model snapshot
- Arizona Cardinals
- 31%
- Denver Broncos
- 69%
Denver Broncos by 5
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Latest sourced reports
- Broncos' Bo Nix acknowledges 'mental aspect' of returning from injury amid rumors about his future (opens in a new tab)
Recent rumors suggested that Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton could be a game or two away from benching struggling starting quarterback Bo Nix in favor of ...
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
- Why The Broncos' Offense Is Still Struggling After Sean Payton Took Over Playcalling (opens in a new tab)
The Denver Broncos' offense, specifically quarterback Bo Nix, has struggled this season and a change in playcallers has not helped so far.
foxsports.com · · Matchup report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos
Dallen Bentley
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Jonah Elliss
out
Reported context: Front-seven depth is affected; pressure and run-defense effects are not quantified.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Bo Nix Under 11.5 rushing yards at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Bo Nix Under 11.5 rushing yards?
Bo Nix hit under 11.5 rushing yards in 6 of 6 games across this season (6 games) (100% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Bo Nix Under 11.5 rushing yards?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:05 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.