Beaux Collins
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
NFL player prop SF Pending
Today's check
The bet: Under 4.5 receptions
You checked 4.5, an alternate line. Most books: 5.5.
Price as of Oct 23, 2:00 PM ET +125 at BetMGM · Updating prices...
Opened +125 at BetMGM, last seen +125
4 of 6 decided (67%) · this season
Verified facts
Christian McCaffrey averaged 4.6 catches across 5 stored games, above the 4.5 line. He had 5.4 passes thrown his way per game. These are past results, not a forecast.
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The opponent: Atlanta Falcons allowed 5.3 catches per game to opposing running backs combined across 6 games. That is a group total, not a forecast for one player.
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| Date | Opponent | Line | Actual | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | Washington Commanders | Under 4.5 receptions | 9 receptions | −105 | miss |
| Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET | Seattle Seahawks | Under 4.5 receptions | 3 receptions | +109 | hit |
| Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET | Denver Broncos | Under 4.5 receptions | 3 receptions | +117 | hit |
4of6
(67%)
Sep 10 – Oct 19
Receptions per game, oldest to newest
4.7vs 4.5 line
Based on 6 games
Christian McCaffrey receptions over the last 6 games versus a line of 4.5.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | vsWAS | Miss | 9 |
| Oct 11 | @SEA | Hit | 3 |
| Oct 4 | vsDEN | Hit | 3 |
| Sep 27 | vsARI | Hit | 4 |
| Sep 20 | vsMIA | Hit | 4 |
| Sep 10 | vsLA(neutral) | Miss | 5 |
Price as of Oct 23, 2:00 PM ET: BetMGM +125
Prices as of Oct 23, 2:00 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
Over −205
Over −240
Over −206
Over −245
Over −210
Over −210
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
MCCAFFREY · TEAM TARGET SHARE
21.1%of team targets
2026 regular season6 games
MCCAFFREY · TEAM AIR-YARD SHARE
5%
2026 regular season6 games
ATL · RECEPTIONS
27rec/game
2026 regular seasonL5
Open
+125
Current
+125
Change
0
Best available moved from +125 to +125. The best available price is basically unchanged. That doesn't make the case for or against Under.
Research refreshed
Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. sustained a rib injury during Atlanta's 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens
abcnews.com · · Availability report
Michael Penix Jr. exited Sunday night’s 30-23 overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens with a rib injury
yardbarker.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Beaux Collins
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Billy Bowman Jr.
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Garret Wallow
Reported context: Front-seven depth is affected; pressure and run-defense effects are not quantified.
Christian McCaffrey hit under 4.5 receptions in 4 of his last 6 tracked games (67%). Last seen is +125 at BetMGM.
Christian McCaffrey hit under 4.5 receptions in 4 of 6 games across this season (6 games) (67% hit rate).
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 1:00 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.