Brett Thorson
out
Reported context: Roster availability is affected; the replacement role is not confirmed.
NFL player prop MIN Settled: Hit
Aaron Jones Over 17.5 Carries vs. Dolphins
The bet: Over 17.5 carries
You checked 17.5, an alternate line. Most books: 16.5.
MIA@MIN Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Cleared 17.5 in 1 of his last 3
Last 3 gamesSep 13 to Sep 27L3 average 17.3
Oldest to newest
Past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 17.5 carries won.
Final: 20.
Hit rate vs the line
1of3
(33%)
Sep 13 – Sep 27
- 12
- 23
- 17
Carries per game, oldest to newest
L3 average
17.3vs 17.5 line
Based on 3 games
Game results
Aaron Jones carries over the last 3 games versus a line of 17.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 17.5
Game log · L3, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | @TB | Miss | 17 |
| Sep 20 | @CHI | Hit | 23 |
| Sep 13 | vsGB | Miss | 12 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Miami Dolphins
2026 season · 7 games
1–6
Record
16.7
Points / game
25.9
Allowed / game
Minnesota Vikings
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
6–1
Record
20
Points / game
13.3
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Over 17.5 carries
Closing price
Odds format
Open
−119
Current
+105
Change
+24
Best available moved from −119 to +105. That pays $20.97 more on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Matchup reports
No game report passed the current research checks. Injury statuses below are separate reports, not a news summary.
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Minnesota Vikings
Charles Demmings
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Miami Dolphins
Brady Cook
out
Reported context: Quarterback availability affects the offense; replacement performance is not assumed.
Caleb Douglas
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Aaron Jones Over 17.5 carries at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Aaron Jones Over 17.5 carries?
Aaron Jones hit over 17.5 carries in 1 of 3 games across the last 3 games (33% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Aaron Jones Over 17.5 carries?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:05 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.