Isiah Pacheco
out
Reported context: Backfield depth is affected; replacement touches are not confirmed.
NFL player prop MIN Settled: Miss
Aaron Jones Over 7.5 Carries vs. Lions
The bet: Over 7.5 carries
MIN@DET Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Cleared 7.5 in 6 of his last 6
Last 6 gamesSep 13 to Oct 25L6 average 17.5
Oldest to newest
Past results, not a forecast.
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 7.5 carries lost.
Final: 5.
Hit rate vs the line
6of6
(100%)
Sep 13 – Oct 25
- 12
- 23
- 17
- 20
- 25
- 8
Carries per game, oldest to newest
L6 average
17.5vs 7.5 line
Based on 6 games
Game results
Aaron Jones carries over the last 6 games versus a line of 7.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 7.5
Game log · L6, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | vsIND | Hit | 8 |
| Oct 11 | @NO | Hit | 25 |
| Oct 4 | vsMIA | Hit | 20 |
| Sep 27 | @TB | Hit | 17 |
| Sep 20 | @CHI | Hit | 23 |
| Sep 13 | vsGB | Hit | 12 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Minnesota Vikings
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
6–1
Record
20
Points / game
13.3
Allowed / game
Detroit Lions
2026 season · 7 games
5–2
Record
29
Points / game
25.7
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Over 7.5 carries
Closing price
Odds format
Open
−111
Current
−123
Change
−12
Best available moved from −111 to −123. That pays $8.79 less on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Game conditions
- Venue
- Ford Field
- Detroit, MI · Artificial surface
- Forecast
- 65°F0% precipitationGusts 7 mph
Game-day inactives
Detroit Lions
Mekhi Wingo
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Seth McLaughlin
C · Coach's Decision ·
Jackson Meeks
WR · Coach's Decision ·
Ahmed Hassanein
DE · Coach's Decision ·
Bishop Fitzgerald
S · Coach's Decision ·
Minnesota Vikings
Jakobe Thomas
S · Coach's Decision ·
Caleb Tiernan
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Elijah Williams
DE · Coach's Decision ·
Max Brosmer
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Demond Claiborne
RB · Coach's Decision ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN game outlookNamed sportsbook line and dated ESPN model
DraftKings game line
ESPN snapshot
- Spread
- DET -3
- Game total
- 46.5
- Detroit Lions
- −170
- Minnesota Vikings
- +142
ESPN matchup predictor
Model snapshot
- Detroit Lions
- 56%
- Minnesota Vikings
- 44%
Detroit Lions by 1.4
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Matchup reports
No game report passed the current research checks. Injury statuses below are separate reports, not a news summary.
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Detroit Lions
Kerby Joseph
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Minnesota Vikings
Charles Demmings
out
Reported context: Secondary depth is affected; coverage changes are not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Aaron Jones Over 7.5 carries at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Aaron Jones Over 7.5 carries?
Aaron Jones hit over 7.5 carries in 6 of 6 games across this season (6 games) (100% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Aaron Jones Over 7.5 carries?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 1:00 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.