Christian Kirk
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
NFL player prop DEN Settled: Miss
Bo Nix Over 4.5 Carries vs. 49ers
The bet: Over 4.5 carries
DEN@SF Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 4.5 carries lost.
Final: 2.
Hit rate vs the line
1of3
(33%)
Sep 14 – Sep 27
- 3
- 5
- 4
Carries per game, oldest to newest
L3 average
4.0vs 4.5 line
Based on 3 games
Game results
Bo Nix carries over the last 3 games versus a line of 4.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 4.5
Game log · L3, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Carries |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | vsLA | Miss | 4 |
| Sep 20 | vsJAX | Hit | 5 |
| Sep 14 | @KC | Miss | 3 |
What the data showed before the game
Matchup and team comparison
Compare the player's chances and results with what the opponent allows. Each statistic shows its own sample.
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Denver Broncos
Your selection
2026 season · 7 games
5–2
Record
20.6
Points / game
20.1
Allowed / game
San Francisco 49ers
2026 season · 7 games
6–1
Record
28.1
Points / game
19.9
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Over 4.5 carries
Closing price
Odds format
Open
−128
Current
+100
Change
+28
Best available moved from −128 to +100. That pays $21.87 more on a $100 bet than at open.
News and availability
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Game conditions
- Venue
- Levi's Stadium
- Santa Clara, CA · Grass
- Forecast
- 91°F0% precipitationGusts 8 mph
Game-day inactives
San Francisco 49ers
Jordan James
RB · Coach's Decision ·
James Thompson Jr.
DT · Ankle ·
Ephesians Prysock
CB · Coach's Decision ·
Kurtis Rourke
QB · Coach's Decision ·
Enrique Cruz Jr.
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Denver Broncos
Dallen Bentley
TE · Coach's Decision ·
Dondrea Tillman
LB · Hamstring ·
Tyler Onyedim
DT · Coach's Decision ·
Kage Casey
OT · Coach's Decision ·
Sam Ehlinger
QB · Coach's Decision ·
ESPN game data (opens in a new tab) ·
ESPN game outlookNamed sportsbook line and dated ESPN model
DraftKings game line
ESPN snapshot
- Spread
- SF -3
- Game total
- 48.5
- San Francisco 49ers
- −166
- Denver Broncos
- +140
ESPN matchup predictor
Model snapshot
- San Francisco 49ers
- 78%
- Denver Broncos
- 22%
San Francisco 49ers by 7.9
ESPN model source (opens in a new tab)Latest sourced reports
- Sean Payton preps Broncos for highly anticipated 49ers matchup in strange way (opens in a new tab)
Broncos coach Sean Payton had the 49ers logo painted on the team's practice field.
The 49ers and Broncos square off in a highly anticipated Week 4 matchup.
nypost.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
San Francisco 49ers
Denver Broncos
Adam Prentice
available
Reported context: Reported availability does not confirm an unrestricted workload.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Bo Nix Over 4.5 carries at this number?
What is the historical hit rate for Bo Nix Over 4.5 carries?
Bo Nix hit over 4.5 carries in 1 of 3 games across the last 3 games (33% hit rate).
What is the closing price for Bo Nix Over 4.5 carries?
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 4:25 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.